What notion of Intrigue and Suspicion should I subscribe to?

U.S. President George W. Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair are engaged in a foreign policy designed to topple the current Iraqi regime (Saddam Hussein) by force (if necessary). "Hussein is bad, he must be stopped!"

There exists, within the international community, a measure of dissatisfaction with this policy. "War is bad, it must be stopped!"

The impasse appears irresolvable. Both arguments are valid and undeniable. Much interest attends the proceedings of this debate and great anticipation is afforded the outcome. "Who said what?" "What country is he from?"

The debate and its’ attendant arguments are a distraction. Bush and Blair are receiving strong criticism abroad and increasing dissatisfaction at home for their pursuit of this policy, at significant risk to their own political careers. "Hey, Hey, WhaddyaSay, make peace, not war!"

Why do they persist? The notion has been advanced that leaders must lead and not necessarily follow public opinion. Regardless of character, these men are politicians. Politicians have ambition. Ambitious men take risks. Risk has a downside and an upside. The downside is political disfavor. What can the upside be to seduce Blair and Bush to this risk?

There is good reason to be confident of military success in a U.S./British military operation in Iraq. Suppose the U.S. and British invasion of Iraq takes about as long to complete as a march across Iraq, pausing only long enough to accept the surrender of the Iraqi army. "Don't shoot!" "We give up!" "Give us food!" Questioning the surrendering army yields information with regard to the specific whereabouts of Saddam Hussein. "He's in there!" "I had nothing to do with it." The U.S. immediately surrounds Husseins’ hideout and places it under siege. "Ally Ally income free." Husseins’ personal bodyguards and entourage surrender in exchange for his exile instead of execution, trial, or imprisonment. "Don't shoot!" "We give up!" "Give us food!" Iraqi citizens celebrate liberty in the streets. "YihYihYihYih!" The British uncover the first cache of chemical and/or biological weapons. "Bloody bugger!"

Bush and Blair are anxious to invade Iraq because a bloodless war renders all opposition in political arenas as mere ornamentation. This chain of events endows them with such vast political capital that they would, for all intents and purposes, RULE THE EARTH! "A bloodless war, you see, how can that be bad?" "Why would you ever listen to anyone but me?"

France, Germany, Russia et. al are desperate to prevent invasion. It’s not that they don’t want war. They’ ve never been against war, anywhere, anytime. They’ ve fought many wars. They’ d love to be fighting this one, if they’ d just thought of it first. No. It’ s not that they don’ t want war, it’ s that they don’ t want Bush and Blair to RULE THE EARTH!. "Why do we have to listen to them?" "I don’t want to listen to them." "Vive la France!"